Oscar Predictions, part 2: It’s Techie Time!

If you missed part one of my annual Academy Awards predictions, click here.  And now …

PART TWO: THE TECHNICAL CATEGORIES

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit.

Rule of thumb: The best single shot or scene can sell the whole film.

And for the first time in the prognosticating process this year, there’s a wild card thrown into the mix.  And his name is Roger Deakins.

Traditionally, who the cinematographer is matters little in deciding the race.  There’s a good reason for this — his or her name isn’t listed on the Oscar ballot.  The acting nominations are the only one where the person’s name is actually included; in all other categories, they just list the films.  You don’t always realize who you’re voting for.  But there have been so many articles this year about how Deakins has just received his ninth nomination (for True Grit) but has never won.  Deakins is best known for his work with the Coen Brothers (he’s done every movie of theirs since Barton Fink in 1991, including Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men) and is very highly respected in the industry.  Plus, while ASC, the cinematographers’ guild, gave their award to Wally Pfister for Inception, it’s not always an indicator of who’ll win the Oscar (they agree less than half the time), and Deakins has already won the ASC award twice.  So I’m going to say he’s due.  The Oscar goes to: True Grit. (Possible upset: Inception.)

(One other possible factor in Deakins’ favor: True Grit is nominated in 10 categories, but isn’t a favorite in any except this one and maybe Costume.  It would be unusual for a film to go 0-for-10 …)

Oscar pre-predictions: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?

Well, Sunday night is Oscar night, and WE’RE INVITED! So that’s pretty cool.

I definitely will be watching the Academy Awards broadcast and expect it to be a load of fun, especially with two honest-to-goodness funny people like James Franco and Anne Hathaway hosting.  (Anything’s better than Ricky Gervais at this point.)  But it’s more to me than just being the first time I’ll spend three straight hours watching TV since the World Series ended.  ‘Cause if you don’t know it, I like predicting the Oscar races.

In the past, I’ve done okay at it — I got 17 out of 24 right last year, 16 out of 24 the year before that, 14 the year before that.  This time I’m hoping to build on previous successes, aiming for 20 but with 18 probably being more realistic.  However, there’s been a change in my prediction preparation this year that might adversely affect my picks, and I’m a little worried about it.

You see … I’ve watched a lot more films this year.