Oscar post-mortem: better late than James Franco

(Blogger’s note: this post should’ve been up Monday.  Unfortunately, I came down with a 36-hour something-or-other and was barely functioning.  But, to quote the not-dead-yet guy from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, “I’m getting better.”  My apologies for the tardiness regardless.  And look on the bright side: at least I’m not going to be writing about Charlie Sheen …)

Well, I made my goal.

Going into the Academy Awards this year, I had my predictions ready (see here, here and here if you missed them earlier) and had a goal in mind.  I correctly picked 16 out of 24 two years ago, 17 out of 24 last year, so this year I was hoping for 18.  And I got it — 18 out of 24, right on the money.  Which is pretty good, I think.  Steve Pond of the show-business website The Wrap, who’s historically very good at this sort of thing, apparently only got 17 this year.  If that’s the case, wow — beating Steve Pond in Oscar predictions is like edging out Kobe Bryant for the NBA scoring title.

I’ll get to the picks themselves in a little bit — but for starters, let’s go into the highlights of the ceremony.  Or maybe the lack thereof.

Oscar Predictions, part 2: It’s Techie Time!

If you missed part one of my annual Academy Awards predictions, click here.  And now …

PART TWO: THE TECHNICAL CATEGORIES

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit.

Rule of thumb: The best single shot or scene can sell the whole film.

And for the first time in the prognosticating process this year, there’s a wild card thrown into the mix.  And his name is Roger Deakins.

Traditionally, who the cinematographer is matters little in deciding the race.  There’s a good reason for this — his or her name isn’t listed on the Oscar ballot.  The acting nominations are the only one where the person’s name is actually included; in all other categories, they just list the films.  You don’t always realize who you’re voting for.  But there have been so many articles this year about how Deakins has just received his ninth nomination (for True Grit) but has never won.  Deakins is best known for his work with the Coen Brothers (he’s done every movie of theirs since Barton Fink in 1991, including Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men) and is very highly respected in the industry.  Plus, while ASC, the cinematographers’ guild, gave their award to Wally Pfister for Inception, it’s not always an indicator of who’ll win the Oscar (they agree less than half the time), and Deakins has already won the ASC award twice.  So I’m going to say he’s due.  The Oscar goes to: True Grit. (Possible upset: Inception.)

(One other possible factor in Deakins’ favor: True Grit is nominated in 10 categories, but isn’t a favorite in any except this one and maybe Costume.  It would be unusual for a film to go 0-for-10 …)

“It’s an honor just to be nominated …”

A few random thoughts on this morning’s Academy Award nominations, from your 19th-favorite Oscar prognosticator:

* The nominations, with a few exceptions, were fairly predictable — so predictable, in fact, that in one case I actually predicted them.  No kidding.  Last Wednesday, I handed my son Sean’s occupational therapist (with whom I’ve had numerous movie-related discussions) a slip of paper with ten film titles on it and said, “here are next week’s Oscar nominees for Best Picture.”  Today, I checked and realized I’d gone 10-for-10, even nailing the two I’d admitted I wasn’t totally sure about (Winter’s Bone and The Kids Are All Right).  Sean’s next O/T appointment is tomorrow; can’t wait to get her reaction …

Oscar predictions, Part I

Okay, time for the Academy Award predictions I promised in yesterday’s post.  I’ll do sixteen of the 24 categories today, saving the last eight (the big ones, natch) for tomorrow.  Please turn of your cell phones, and refrain from talking during the presentation …

* * *

TECHNICAL AWARDS (10)

*** Best Cinematography

Nominees: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire.

My pick: Slumdog Millionaire. Slumdog, Dark Knight and Benjamin Button have been splitting the critics’ cinematography awards, but Slumdog’s recent wins at the BAFTAs (the British equivalent to the Oscars) and from the cameramen’s guild give it a solid lead over the other contenders.  (Incidentally, I’ve love to see Roger Deakins get it for The Reader — this is his EIGHTH nom without a win, and he’s wowed me time and again with his imaginative camera work for the Coen Brothers and Night Shyamalan — but the odds are way against him.  Maybe next year.)