Oscar predictions, part 3: the moments you’ve all been waiting for …

If you haven’t read Part 1 or Part 2 of my Oscar predictions, you might want to check them out first.  But now it’s time for the big, high-profile awards, the ones people think about when they say “so-and-so is an Oscar winner!”  Ready?  Then let’s go!

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Mike Leigh (Another Year), Silver/Tamasy/Johnson/Dorrington (The Fighter), Christopher Nolan (Inception), Lisa Cholodenko/Stuart Blumberg (The Kids Are All Right), David Seidler (The King’s Speech)

Rule of thumb: Well, it’s complicated …

Oscar Predictions, part 2: It’s Techie Time!

If you missed part one of my annual Academy Awards predictions, click here.  And now …

PART TWO: THE TECHNICAL CATEGORIES

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit.

Rule of thumb: The best single shot or scene can sell the whole film.

And for the first time in the prognosticating process this year, there’s a wild card thrown into the mix.  And his name is Roger Deakins.

Traditionally, who the cinematographer is matters little in deciding the race.  There’s a good reason for this — his or her name isn’t listed on the Oscar ballot.  The acting nominations are the only one where the person’s name is actually included; in all other categories, they just list the films.  You don’t always realize who you’re voting for.  But there have been so many articles this year about how Deakins has just received his ninth nomination (for True Grit) but has never won.  Deakins is best known for his work with the Coen Brothers (he’s done every movie of theirs since Barton Fink in 1991, including Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men) and is very highly respected in the industry.  Plus, while ASC, the cinematographers’ guild, gave their award to Wally Pfister for Inception, it’s not always an indicator of who’ll win the Oscar (they agree less than half the time), and Deakins has already won the ASC award twice.  So I’m going to say he’s due.  The Oscar goes to: True Grit. (Possible upset: Inception.)

(One other possible factor in Deakins’ favor: True Grit is nominated in 10 categories, but isn’t a favorite in any except this one and maybe Costume.  It would be unusual for a film to go 0-for-10 …)

Oscar predictions, part 1: The Special Categories

As promised yesterday, it’s time for my annual Academy Awards predictions.  Again, these are for entertainment purposes only, so please, no wagering.  (And if you do wager and lose, don’t whine at me about it, I warned ya.)

The format will be a little more complex this year.  First of all, to keep from wearing you out, I’ll be splitting the prognostications over three separate blog entries — one of the “special” categories, one for technical achievement, and one for the big names (writing, directing, acting and Best Picture).  Also, in addition to listing the nominees, my pick, and the reasons for the pick, I’ll be including rules of thumb for how to pick each category, and possible upsets in categories where I don’t think my choice is a stone-cold lock (that’s half of them — 12 out of the 24).

Here’s a few general rules about how Oscars are won, before we proceed:

• Oscar nominations are based on merit; Oscar wins are based more on politics. I covered that in yesterday’s post, so I won’t reiterate it here.  It’s the most important rule to remember — the people who complain that Oscars don’t always go to the most deserving candidate are just people who don’t understand how the Oscar system works.  Life isn’t fair, and neither is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences.  Cope.
• The juries of one’s peers are exceedingly important. Before the Oscars, there are the guild awards, given by various sections of the movie-making community.  The directors have the Directors Guild Awards.  The actors have the Screen Actors Guild Awards.  The editors, the cinematographers, the sound mixing wallahs … you get the picture.  Many of the people who vote for those awards are also members of the Academy, and are the ones who vote on the same categories at the Oscars (only Best Picture is voted on by everyone).  So the guild awards, even more than the Golden Globes or other awards given by film critics, are often good indicators of who will be coming up on stage come Oscar night.
• Keep a sharp eye on who’s aging, who’s “overdue,” and who’s a previous loser. The Academy voters like to spread the wealth, and make sure as many people win as possible.  They also like to honor their longest-serving veterans who haven’t received a trophy previously.  So being a previous Oscar winner is actually a disadvantage, while being a senior citizen — in Hollywood, that’s anyone over 40 — can boost your vote totals (they want to make sure they say “we love you” before you croak).  And if you’re older, have been nominated several times before and never won … better have that speech prepared.  (This is especially true in the acting categories.)
• The average age of an Academy voter is 57. Granted, some of them let their grandkids fill out the ballot (Jack Palance once admitted it to a reporter), but not all of them.  This tends to cause the winners to be slightly more conservative/traditional choices than those of the critics.

Finally, I’ll underline the films I’ve actually seen, so as to help screen out any lingering “I watched that, and it was really good/bad” bias.

Okay, on to the predictions!